How Does Quota-Oriented Land Use Planning Affect Urban Expansion? A Spatial Analysis of 280 Chinese Cities

As the key tool for land use management in China, planning (LUP) is characterized by advantage of being state-led, quota-oriented, and easily monitored. Nevertheless, increasing research has doubted its effectiveness, particularly controlling urban expansion, while few studies have empirically confirmed it. To this end, we construct a constraint index (PCI), supported quota, evaluating pressure from LUP on then analyze spatial equilibrium PCI. We also explore effects PCI expansion via geographically weighted regression model (GWR) collecting data 280 prefecture-level cities China 2009 to 2016. The results show that: (1) most present shortage quotas, disequilibrium exist among regions; (2) significant negative all cities, disparity these occurs as well; (3) stronger influence southwest where economy relatively backward. This study aims provide reference planners policymakers help improve effectiveness LUP.